The China-U.S. trade dispute has been a significant event in the field of international trade in recent years, with profound impacts on bilateral trade relations. This study examines the effects of the 2018 and 2019 tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods using the synthetic control method from two perspectives. First, we analyze the dynamic impacts of tariff policies on China's total exports to the U.S., identifying changes before and after policy implementation. Second, we investigate the heterogeneous impacts across 21 HS product categories, uncovering variations in sensitivity to tariff policies. Furthermore, based on the historical policy effects, this study predicts the potential impacts of similar tariff policies under Trump's new administration on China-U.S. trade. The results suggest that if similar policies are implemented, China's total exports to the U.S. will experience further declines. In the early stage of the policy, market behaviors such as stockpiling and anticipatory exports may temporarily drive up export values, but the decline in exports will gradually increase thereafter. Products with high price elasticity are likely to face greater negative impacts compared to high-value-added products, but high-tech products will also face significant pressure due to U.S. technological restrictions. This study provides valuable insights into the economic impacts of the China-U.S. trade dispute, evaluates the consequences of tariff policies, and offers guidance for policymaking.