
二氧化碳影子价格参数化估计:一个统一框架
Estimating the Shadow Price of Carbon Dioxide: A Unified Parametric Framework
参数化影子价格分析框架被广泛应用于估计二氧化碳边际减排成本,但不同学者针对我国二氧化碳影子价格的测算结果存在较大差异,难以为政府决策提供可信赖的减排成本依据。本文首先梳理基于参数化影子价格分析框架估计二氧化碳减排成本的研究脉络,发现影子价格估计结果的差异主要源自:是否考虑了二氧化碳与其他污染物间的协同效应、生产技术差异、距离函数的显函数选择差异以及对距离函数施加约束条件的差异。基于此,本文尝试从投入和产出变量设定、生产技术构建、距离函数的显函数选择以及对距离函数施加的约束条件、影子价格推导等方面进行统一化,重点考虑了异质性生产技术、异质性技术进步和异质性减排策略等关键因素对影子价格估计结果的影响, 进而给出了一个统一的参数化二氧化碳影子价格分析框架。该统一框架旨在为二氧化碳边际减排成本研究提供一个更加科学合理的研究范式,增强相关应用研究的可比性和延续性.
The parameterized shadow pricing framework has been widely used to estimate the marginal abatement costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, in the context of China, there exists a large variation in the empirical estimations of the shadow price of CO2 emissions in China by different studies, which affects the reliability of abatement costs for supporting decision making. This paper firstly summaries the studies of CO2 abatement cost based on the parameterized shadow price analysis framework. It has been found that the variation in the shadow price estimates mainly comes from: whether the synergistic effects of carbon dioxide with other pollutants are considered, the difference in production technology, the difference in the characterization of distance function and the difference in constraints imposed by distance function. Based on that, this paper aims to standardize the setting of input and output variables, production technology characterization, explicit function selection of distance function and constraints imposed by distance function, derivation of shadow price. A focus is to consider the influence of heterogeneous production technology, heterogeneous technological progress and heterogeneous emission abatement strategy on shadow price estimates simultaneously. A unified parametric framework for estimating the shadow prices of CO2 emissions is then provided. It is expected that the unified framework can provide a more scientific and reasonable research paradigm for evaluating the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions, which helps improve the comparability and continuity of relevant applied research.
二氧化碳 / 边际减排成本 / 影子价格 / 距离函数 {{custom_keyword}} /
carbon dioxide / marginal abatement cost / shadow price / distance function {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 我国二氧化碳影子价格估计结果比较 |
文献 | 距离函数 | 研究尺度 | 时间 | 碳价 |
Wei et al. (2013) | DDF | 火力发电企业 | 2004 | 249美元/吨 |
魏楚(2014) | DDF | 城市 | 2001–2008 | 967元/吨 |
Zhang et al. (2014) | ODF | 省份 | 2006–1010 | 22 |
Du and Mao (2015) | DDF | 火力发电企业 | 2004、2008 | 955 |
Du et al. (2016) | DDF | 火力发电企业 | 2008 | 108 |
He (2015) | ODF | 省份 | 2000–2009 | 104元/吨 |
Tang et al. (2016) | DDF | 省份 | 2003–2012 | 5512元/吨 |
蒋伟杰和张少华(2018) | DDF | 工业部门 | 1998–2011 | 5480元/吨 |
Wang et al. (2018) | DDF | 省份 | 2004–2014 | 500 |
Ji et al. (2020) | DDF | 城市 | 2006–2015 | 931元/吨 |
表2 基于Färe参数化影子价格建模及应用研究 |
文献 | 研究类型 | 距离函数 | 模型改进 | 协同 | |||||
IDF | ODF | DDF | HPT | HTP | HEAS | 否 | 是 | ||
Marklund and Samakovlis (2007) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
陈诗一(2010) | 实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Matsushita and Yamane (2012) | 实证 | √ | √ | √ | |||||
Wei et al. (2013) | 实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
魏楚(2014) | 实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Zhang et al. (2014) | 实证 | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
Zhou et al. (2015) | 实证 | √ | √ | √ | √ | ||||
Du et al. (2016) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | √ | |||||
Ma and Hailu (2016) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | |||
Tang et al. (2016) | 实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Wang et al. (2017) | 实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Wang et al. (2018) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
蒋伟杰和张少华(2018) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Ji and Zhou (2020) | 理论+实证 | √ | √ | ||||||
Ji et al. (2020) | 实证 | √ | √ |
注: IDF、ODF、DDF分别表示投入距离函数、产出距离函数和方向距离函数; HPT、HTP、HEAS分别表示异质性生产技术、异质性技术进步和异质性减排策略; 若生产技术同时纳入二氧化碳之外的污染物, 则认为该模型考虑协同减排效应, 否则认为未考虑. |
表3 谢泼德距离函数和方向距离函数的基本性质 |
基本性质 | 投入距离函数 | 产出距离函数 | 方向距离函数 |
技术可行性 | |||
零结合性 | |||
投入单调行 | |||
期望产出单调性 | |||
非期望产出单调性 | |||
齐次性 | — | ||
变换性 | – | – | |
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