
异质性政策效应评估的非线性方法:多期双重差分模型的拓展研究
A Nonlinear Approach to Assessing Heterogeneous Policy Effects: An Extended Study of a Multiphase Difference-in-differences Model
为了解决异质性政策效应的评估问题, 本文在多期双重差分模型中引入平滑转换函数, 提出了一种更具一般性的非线性双重差分模型及其估计方法, 并以设立国家级新区的异质性经济增长效应评估为例, 验证了新模型的有效性.研究发现, 作为多期双重差分模型的拓展, 非线性双重差分模型能够从机理上刻画政策生效的渐进过程和个体异质性特征.设立国家级新区对地区经济增长具有显著的异质性影响, 并随着创新水平的变化而呈显著的非线性特征, 该效应在0.95~2.905区间内平滑变化.
To solve the problem of evaluating the effects of heterogeneous policies, a smooth transition function is introduced into the difference-in-differences model, and a more general nonlinear difference-in-differences model and its estimation method are proposed. The effectiveness of the new model is verified by taking the evaluation of the effect of heterogeneous economic growth of national new districts as an example. It is found that the nonlinear difference-in-differences model, as an extension of the traditional difference-in-differences model, can describe the gradual process and individual heterogeneity of policy effect from mechanism. The establishment of statelevel new areas has a significant heterogeneous effect on regional economic growth, and presents a nonlinear characteristic with the change of innovation level. The effect changes smoothly in the range of 0.95 to 2.905.
异质性政策效应 / 非线性双重差分模型 / 平滑转换函数 / 政策评估 {{custom_keyword}} /
heterogeneous policy effect / nonlinear difference-in-differences model / smooth transition function / policy evaluation {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 非线性双重差分模型的线性检验与剩余非线性检验 |
线性检验 | 剩余非线性检验 | |||||||
F | p值 | F | p值 | |||||
5.908 | 2 | 480 | 0.003 | 0.442 | 1 | 480 | 0.507 | |
3.644 | 4 | 478 | 0.006 | 0.222 | 2 | 479 | 0.801 | |
3.12 | 6 | 476 | 0.005 | 0.202 | 3 | 478 | 0.895 | |
2.945 | 8 | 474 | 0.003 | 0.584 | 4 | 477 | 0.675 |
表2 非线性双重差分模型的非嵌套假设检验 |
模型1 vs模型2 | 模型1 | 模型2 | ||
t统计量 | p值 | t统计量 | p值 | |
传统DID vs LSTR-DID | -0.03 | 0.979 | 2.01** | 0.049 |
传统DID vs ESTR-DID | 0.38 | 0.707 | 2.41** | 0.019 |
LSTR-DID vs ESTR-DID | 0.55 | 0.586 | 1.4 | 0.166 |
表3 设立国家级新区的经济增长效应评估 |
变量 | 模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) |
线性部分 | |||||
DID | 1.163* | 1.507*** | 1.395** | 2.006*** | 2.905*** |
(-0.585) | (-0.475) | (-0.556) | (-0.45) | (-0.732) | |
非线性部分 | |||||
DID | -1.250** | -1.955*** | |||
(-0.589) | (-0.765) | ||||
c | 14.617*** | 11.526*** | |||
(-1.554) | (-0.791) | ||||
3.662 | -1.515* | ||||
(-61.77) | (-0.885) | ||||
控制变量 | |||||
Inv | 0.050*** | 0.042*** | 0.043*** | 0.044*** | |
(-0.009) | (-0.013) | (-0.008) | (-0.008) | ||
Con | -0.111*** | -0.124** | -0.126*** | -0.129*** | |
(-0.034) | (-0.059) | (-0.025) | (-0.025) | ||
Exp | 0.167** | 0.293*** | 0.291*** | 0.311*** | |
(-0.071) | (-0.088) | (-0.083) | (-0.083) | ||
Gov | 0.255*** | 0.373** | 0.360*** | 0.371*** | |
(0.091) | (-0.178) | (-0.07) | (-0.07) | ||
Sec | 0.062** | 0.009 | 0.015 | 0.009 | |
(-0.03) | (-0.06) | (-0.032) | (-0.032) | ||
Agg | 0.073*** | 0.066*** | 0.075*** | 0.070*** | |
(-0.022) | (-0.022) | (-0.02) | (-0.019) | ||
Inn | 0.036** | 0.067* | 0.078*** | 0.075*** | |
(-0.017) | (-0.04) | (-0.02) | (-0.019) | ||
_cons | 7.224*** | -3.991 | -2.727 | -3.516*** | -3.110*** |
(-0.305) | (-3.491) | (-7.024) | (-0.404) | (-0.393) | |
个体固定效应 | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
时间固定效应 | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
统计量 | |||||
组间 | 0.585 | 0.692 | 0.738 | 0.74 | 0.741 |
AIC | 4646.051 | 4351.27 | 2249.17 | 2250.938 | 2248.627 |
BIC | 4720.184 | 4459.997 | 2344.458 | 2359.226 | 2356.914 |
注: *、**、***分别表示10%、5%和1%的显著性水平水平上显著; 括号内为个体层面的聚类稳健标准误. |
表4 设立国家级新区的年均政策效应 |
序号 | 新区名称 | 获批时间 | 主体城市 | 年均效应 | 标准差 | 变异系数 |
1 | 滨海新区 | 2006/5/26 | 天津 | 2.035 | 0.984 | 0.484 |
2 | 两江新区 | 2010/5/5 | 重庆 | 2.428 | 0.842 | 0.347 |
3 | 兰州新区 | 2012/8/20 | 甘肃兰州 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
4 | 南沙新区 | 2012/9/6 | 广东广州 | 2.812 | 0.227 | 0.081 |
5 | 西咸新区 | 2014/1/6 | 陕西西安、咸阳 | 2.233 | 0.94 | 0.421 |
6 | 贵安新区 | 2014/1/6 | 贵州贵阳、安顺 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
7 | 西海岸新区 | 2014/6/3 | 山东青岛 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
8 | 金普新区 | 2014/6/23 | 辽宁大连 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
9 | 天府新区 | 2014/10/2 | 四川成都、眉山 | 2.849 | 0.111 | 0.039 |
10 | 湘江新区 | 2015/4/8 | 湖南长沙 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
11 | 江北新区 | 2015/6/27 | 江苏南京 | 2.875 | 0.051 | 0.018 |
12 | 福州新区 | 2015/8/30 | 福建福州 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
13 | 滇中新区 | 2015/9/7 | 云南昆明 | 1.57 | 0.984 | 0.627 |
14 | 哈尔滨新区 | 2015/12/16 | 黑龙江哈尔滨 | 2.286 | 1.019 | 0.446 |
15 | 长春新区 | 2016/2/3 | 吉林长春 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
16 | 赣江新区 | 2016/6/14 | 江西南昌、九江 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 |
17 | 雄安新区 | 2017/4/1 | 河北保定 | 2.905 | 0 | 0 |
注: 由于评估样本为我国大中城市国家级新区设立于2003–2017年范围内, 上海的浦东新区和浙江舟山的群岛新区未纳入其中. |
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作者感谢匿名审稿专家、白仲林教授和王群勇教授提供的宝贵意见和建议, 当然文责自负.
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