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PDF(870 KB)
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众筹投资者的行为检验: 责任分散还是羊群效应?
), 王忠阳(), 胡俊(), 曾勇()
Investigation of Investors' Behavior in Crowdfunding: Responsibility Diffusion or Herding?
), Zhongyang WANG(), Jun HU(), Yong ZENG()
陌生个体依托互联网平台实现直接融资的众筹交易中, 异质性投资者的分散投标决策对众筹效率具有重要影响. 在分析众筹相对于P2P借贷的融资进程阶段性特征的基础上, 本文爬取了"众筹网"上筹资期限为30天的606个项目数据, 实证考察责任分散和羊群行为两种投资者行为. 在以亲友、粉丝、极客等与项目发起人具有较强社会关系的投资者为主的筹资前期阶段, 前期投资促成的累计筹资额越高, 后续投资者的新增投资额越小, 进而存在旁观心态驱使的责任分散行为. 在以大众投资者为主的筹资后期阶段, 累计筹资额会显著正向促进新增投资, 表明存在跟从他人投资的羊群效应. 进一步, 剩余筹资进度、项目信息更新、超募状况等融资进程的动态披露信息, 对筹资前期阶段的责任分散行为具有调节作用; 筹资后期阶段投资者的羊群行为具有理性学习的成份, 他们会利用已经掌握的公开信息推断前期投资行为蕴含的不可观测的私有信息.
On Internet-based crowdfunding platform, individuals can achieve direct transaction without traditional financial intermediaries and the decentralized bidding decision made by heterogeneous investors plays a crucial role in crowdfunding efficiency. Starting from the analysis on the difference in the staged characteristics of funding process between crowdfunding and P2P lending, this paper uses a sample of 606 projects with funding period of 30 days which are crawled from Zhongchou.com to investigate two types of investors' behaviors related to responsibility diffusion and herding, respectively. In the earlier stage of bidding process, since the majority of bidders, such as friends, families, fans or jeeks, have strong social ties with the financer, the result shows that responsibility diffusion behavior would appear with the evidence that follow-up investors bid less on the listings with more cumulative funding. In the latter stage of bidding process, the evidence shows that more cumulative funding is helpful to attract more follow-up biddings, which suggests that the herding behavior exists for public investors with less information about the financer. Moreover, we find that the disclosed information related to the dynamic of funding process, including remaining funding schedule, the updating of project information and oversubscription status, has a significant adjustment effect on the behavior of responsibility diffusion. In the latter stage, further findings suggest that follow-up investors' herding behavior is rational or partially rational because they are able to infer unobservable information privately held by previous investors.
众筹 / 众筹网 / 责任分散 / 羊群行为 {{custom_keyword}} /
crowdfunding / zhongchou.com / responsibility diffusion / herding behavior {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 变量定义与指标测度 |
| 变量 | 名称及符号 | 定义及说明 | |
| 被解释变量 | 日筹资额(Day_Amount) | 项目在第t天新增的单日筹资额 | |
| 解释变量 | 累计筹资额(Cum_Amount) | 项目在第1天至第t-1天已经获得的累计筹资额 | |
| 控制变量 | 时变变量 | 投资人数(Supports) | 项目在第1天至第t-1天的累计支持人数 |
| 项目信息更新次数(Update) | 在第1天至第t-1天项目信息更新的累计次数 | ||
| 剩余筹资进度(Left_Percent) | 目标筹资额减去截止第t-1天已经获得的累计筹资额, 再除以目标筹资额 | ||
| 是否超募(D1) | 截止第t-1天的累计筹资额达到目标筹资额取1; 否则取0 | ||
| 是否超募150% (D2) | 截止第t-1天的累计筹资额达到目标筹资额的1.5倍取1; 否则取0 | ||
| 非时变变量 | 目标筹资额(Target) | 项目设定的融资成功所需的总筹资金额 | |
| 视频宣传信息(Video) | 项目展示信息中提供了视频资料取1; 否则为0 | ||
| 第一天筹资额(First_Amount) | 项目在第1天获得的筹资额 | ||
| 行业虚拟变量(Industry) | 项目属于娱乐或科技行业取1; 否则为0 | ||
| 所处地区(Region) | 发起人来自沿海经济发达区取1; 否则为0 |
表2 变量的描述性统计 |
| 变量 | 观测值 | 均值 | 中位数 | 方差 | 最大值 | 最小值 |
| Day_Amount | 17, 423 | 143.735 | 0.000 | 1231.286 | 65007.000 | 0.000 |
| Cum_Amount | 17, 423 | 3, 268.230 | 118.000 | 12, 234.030 | 226, 500.000 | 0.000 |
| Supports | 17, 423 | 34.715 | 4.000 | 128.909 | 3201.000 | 0.000 |
| Update | 17, 423 | 3.232 | 2.000 | 3.783 | 93.000 | 0.000 |
| First_Amount | 17, 423 | 815.561 | 5.000 | 4, 407.890 | 90, 042.000 | 0.000 |
| Target | 17, 423 | 39, 577.680 | 10, 000.000 | 155, 685.900 | 3, 000, 000.000 | 500.000 |
| Video | 17, 423 | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.425 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| D1 | 17, 423 | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.316 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| D2 | 17, 423 | 0.042 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Left_Percent (%) | 17, 423 | 70.568 | 98.000 | 73.550 | 100.000 | |
| Region | 17, 423 | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.482 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Industry | 17, 423 | 0.272 | 0.000 | 0.445 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
表3 责任分散和羊群行为存在性检验的回归结果 |
| 全样本 | 成功子样本 | 失败子样本 | 前20天子样本 | 后10天子样本 | |||||||
| 模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | 模型5 | 模型6 | 模型7 | |||||
| Cum_Amount | 0.022*** | -0.059*** | -0.056*** | -0.255*** | -0.128*** | 0.046*** | 0.060*** | ||||
| (12.973) | (-17.561) | (-8.262) | (-61.476) | (-27.706) | (6.494) | (8.447) | |||||
| Supports | 1.230*** | 1.215*** | 1.204** | -2.171*** | 3.012*** | 11.719*** | 11.361*** | ||||
| (9.270) | (4.291) | (2.140) | (-6.626) | (7.314) | (14.710) | (14.416) | |||||
| Left_Percent | 1.640*** | 3.035*** | 3.231*** | -9.710*** | 3.306*** | 11.352*** | -6.986*** | ||||
| (6.190) | (7.282) | (3.926) | (-13.264) | (5.584) | (9.282) | (-3.389) | |||||
| Left_Percent | 9.565** | -8.1710 | -4.022 | -29.122*** | -29.428*** | -96.465*** | -183.019*** | ||||
| (2.703) | (-1.262) | (-0.309) | (-4.977) | (-3.709) | (-2.926) | (-5.455) | |||||
| Left_Percent | 157.484** | 640.967*** | 611.511*** | 0.0000 | 719.251*** | 1001.784*** | 531.643*** | ||||
| (3.796) | (11.563) | (5.616) | (0.000) | (10.317) | (7.712) | (3.926) | |||||
| Left_Percent | 143.076*** | 114.6978 | 118.5362 | 0.0000 | -164.463 | 1249.667*** | 1302.959*** | ||||
| (2.101) | (1.254) | (0.660) | (0.000) | (-1.460) | (5.213) | (5.494) | |||||
| Cum_Amount × Left_Percent | 0.001*** | ||||||||||
| (10.985) | |||||||||||
| Target | 0.000 | ||||||||||
| (0.549) | |||||||||||
| Video | -31.971** | ||||||||||
| (-1.488) | |||||||||||
| Industry | 7.833 | ||||||||||
| (0.351) | |||||||||||
| Region | 38.273* | ||||||||||
| (1.851) | |||||||||||
| First_Amount | -0.012*** | ||||||||||
| (-4.035) | |||||||||||
| 常数项 | -136.356*** | 28.540 | 747.9718*** | 1191.061*** | 189.789*** | -1169.648*** | 473.261** | ||||
| (-4.166) | (0.602) | (7.184) | (15.634) | (2.941) | (-6.851) | (2.098) | |||||
| 个体固定效应 | 未控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | ||||
| 观测值 | 17, 423 | 17, 569 | 4, 406 | 13, 163 | 11, 509 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | ||||
| Adj.R2 | 0.090 | 0.045 | 0.041 | 0.366 | 0.166 | 0.094 | 0.114 | ||||
| 注: 括号内为回归系数的T统计量, *、**、***分别表示在10%、5%和1%的水平上显著, 下同. |
表4 融资进程对责任分散行为调节作用的回归结果 |
| 模型8 | 模型9 | 模型10 | 模型11 | |
| Cum_Amount | -0.138*** | -0.167*** | -0.162*** | -0.151*** |
| (-29.534) | (-24.291) | (-23.972) | (-21.852) | |
| Supports | 1.111** | 1.126*** | -1.856*** | -1.843*** |
| (2.544) | (2.584) | (-4.087) | (-4.068) | |
| Left_Percent | 5.306*** | 4.705*** | 6.235*** | 6.713*** |
| (8.706) | (7.620) | (10.194) | (10.924) | |
| Update | -9.991 | -29.983*** | -63.998*** | -59.906*** |
| (-1.244) | (-3.430) | (-7.307) | (-6.837) | |
| D1 | 864.210*** | 848.049*** | 1370.733*** | 1299.736*** |
| (12.311) | (12.088) | (18.568) | (17.463) | |
| D2 | -68.412 | -70.193 | 194.076* | 492.723*** |
| (-0.610) | (-0.627) | (1.751) | (4.133) | |
| Cum_Amount × Left_Percent | -0.000*** | -0.000*** | -0.000*** | -0.000*** |
| (-12.451) | (-10.380) | (-15.726) | (-16.667) | |
| Cum_Amount × Update | 0.003*** | 0.011*** | 0.010*** | |
| (5.750) | (15.543) | (14.312) | ||
| Cum_Amount × D1 | -0.067*** | -0.062*** | ||
| (-19.781) | (-18.116) | |||
| Cum_Amount × D2 | -0.031*** | |||
| (-6.710) | ||||
| 常数项 | 35.723 | 155.278** | 93.796 | 38.448 |
| (0.547) | (2.270) | (1.394) | (0.568) | |
| 个体固定效应 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
| 观测值 | 11, 509 | 11, 509 | 11, 509 | 11, 509 |
| Adj.R2 | 0.178 | 0.181 | 0.209 | 0.212 |
表5 项目是否筹资成功的影响因素检验 |
| 模型12 | 模型13 | 模型14 | 模型15 | 模型16 | |
| Left_Percent | -0.109*** | -0.099*** | -0.100*** | -0.099*** | -0.097*** |
| (-27.603) | (-24.344) | (-24.192) | (-23.628) | (-22.711) | |
| Update | 0.421*** | 0.413*** | 0.368*** | 0.362*** | |
| (9.015) | (8.847) | (7.481) | (7.369) | ||
| Video | 0.797*** | 0.599** | 0.615*** | ||
| (3.522) | (2.549) | (2.593) | |||
| First_Amount | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | |||
| (6.960) | (5.976) | ||||
| Target | -0.000 | ||||
| (-1.427) | |||||
| 常数项 | 5.581*** | 3.264*** | 3.153*** | 3.047*** | 2.983*** |
| (20.546) | (9.702) | (9.345) | (8.872) | (8.708) | |
| 观测值 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.872 | 0.884 | 0.885 | 0.891 | 0.891 |
表6 基于信息推断的理性羊群行为检验的回归结果 |
| 模型17 | 模型18 | 模型19 | 模型20 | 模型21 | 模型22 | |
| Cum_Amount | 0.066*** | 0.102*** | 0.123*** | 0.076*** | 0.063*** | 0.090 |
| (9.424) | (7.439) | (9.063) | (4.380) | (2.591) | (1.032) | |
| Supports | 11.385*** | 11.442*** | 15.473*** | 15.924*** | 15.893*** | 15.255*** |
| (14.404) | (14.484) | (19.022) | (19.436) | (19.374) | (18.749) | |
| Left_Percent | -10.726*** | -11.073*** | -13.322*** | -15.005*** | -15.109*** | -14.517*** |
| (-5.484) | (-5.656) | (-6.939) | (-7.661) | (-7.695) | (-7.238) | |
| Update | -146.237*** | -81.490** | -44.642 | -22.087 | -15.395 | -122.064*** |
| (-4.423) | (-2.076) | (-1.161) | (-0.570) | (-0.387) | (-3.769) | |
| Cum_Amount × Left_Percent | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | 0.001*** | |
| (12.733) | (12.696) | (13.839) | (13.871) | (11.907) | ||
| Cum_Amount × Update | -0.005*** | -0.006*** | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | ||
| (-3.054) | (-3.959) | (-4.869) | (-4.902) | |||
| Cum_Amount × Video | -0.371*** | -0.375*** | -0.362*** | -0.369*** | ||
| (-15.823) | (-15.998) | (-12.660) | (-15.734) | |||
| Cum_Amount × First_Amount | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | ||||
| (4.188) | (3.725) | |||||
| Cum_Amount × Target | 0.000 | |||||
| (0.756) | ||||||
| Cum_Amount × Left_Percent_D | 0.001*** | |||||
| (11.000) | ||||||
| Cum_Amount × Update_D | -0.172*** | |||||
| (-3.448) | ||||||
| Cum_Amount × First_Amount_D | 0.126* | |||||
| (1.812) | ||||||
| Cum_Amount × Target_D | 0.035 | |||||
| (1.076) | ||||||
| 常数项 | 735.355*** | 535.608** | 751.261*** | 530.864** | 564.639** | 1154.952*** |
| (3.309) | (2.314) | (3.313) | (2.284) | (2.385) | (4.969) | |
| 个体固定效应 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
| 观测值 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 |
| Adj.R2 | 0.106 | 0.108 | 0.147 | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.147 |
表7 利用累计投资人数表征前期投资行为的稳健性检验结果 |
| 模型23 | 模型24 | 模型25 | 模型26 | 模型27 | 模型28 | |
| Cum_Amount | 0.055*** | 0.075*** | 0.030*** | -0.041*** | -0.072*** | -0.040*** |
| (7.845) | (10.496) | (4.190) | (-5.603) | (-9.514) | (-5.514) | |
| Supports | 12.492*** | 39.287*** | 54.052*** | 28.035*** | 11.123*** | -3.921 |
| (15.610) | (17.466) | (23.972) | (11.642) | (4.225) | (-0.413) | |
| Left_Percent | 8.393*** | 10.258*** | 8.339*** | 3.694*** | 1.587 | -19.336*** |
| (7.002) | (8.618) | (7.293) | (3.341) | (1.450) | (-10.497) | |
| Update | -25.096 | 264.755*** | 149.848*** | 133.863*** | 125.431*** | -144.252*** |
| (-0.790) | (6.837) | (4.001) | (3.755) | (3.585) | (-4.736) | |
| Supports × Left_Percent | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | |
| (6.973) | (5.179) | (7.729) | (8.979) | (4.517) | ||
| Supports × Update | -3.182*** | -2.641*** | -2.023*** | -1.278*** | ||
| (-12.720) | (-10.967) | (-8.772) | (-5.508) | |||
| Supports × Video | -31.527*** | -35.064*** | -21.059*** | -50.806*** | ||
| (-22.185) | (-25.769) | (-12.798) | (-32.329) | |||
| Supports × First Amoun | 0.009*** | 0.002*** | ||||
| (23.813) | (2.660) | |||||
| Supports × Target | 0.000*** | |||||
| (14.560) | ||||||
| Supports × Left_Percent_D | 0.001*** | |||||
| (14.825) | ||||||
| Supports × Update_D | -17.745*** | |||||
| (-2.687) | ||||||
| Supports × First_Amount_D | 23.929*** | |||||
| (3.291) | ||||||
| Supports × Target_D | 49.484*** | |||||
| (23.546) | ||||||
| 常数项 | -966.970*** | -2344.069*** | -2035.596*** | -2419.020*** | -888.328*** | 1546.284*** |
| (-5.657) | (-11.705) | (-10.585) | (-13.166) | (-4.257) | (7.152) | |
| 个体固定效应 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
| 观测值 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 | 6, 060 |
| Adj.R2 | 0.088 | 0.114 | 0.187 | 0.264 | 0.292 | 0.176 |
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PDF(870 KB)
表1 变量定义与指标测度
图1 每日人均投资额和累积投资人数随筹资进程的变化趋势(单位: 元或人)图2 每日新增筹资金额均值和新增投资人数均值随筹资进程的变化趋势(单位: 千元或人)表2 变量的描述性统计表3 责任分散和羊群行为存在性检验的回归结果表4 融资进程对责任分散行为调节作用的回归结果表5 项目是否筹资成功的影响因素检验表6 基于信息推断的理性羊群行为检验的回归结果表7 利用累计投资人数表征前期投资行为的稳健性检验结果/
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